Dan is spot-on with this assessment:
Of course Democrats could—or could have—prevented the GOP from making inroads with conservative gay and lesbian voters by making good on their promises to gays and lesbians when they had the chance (see: 2009). But they didn’t and it’s looking they won’t be able to for a long, long time. So now the GOP can sweep in and argue, “You know in your hearts that the Democrats are never going to end DADT or pass ENDA or do anything about DOMA or help unite transnational gay couples. But we will cut your taxes along with everyone else’s. So vote for us and maybe one day you’ll be able to buy a $4 million condo in Chelsea too.”
Some gays and lesbians—the selfish and deluded ones who don’t see the bright and shining link between reproductive rights and gay rights, and who can’t see that the GOP’s divisive attacks on the “other” are an outrage even when the GOP moves on to attacking other others (gays in 2004, immigrants and Muslims in 2010)—might be taken in by the slogan, “GOP: No harm. Democrats: No good.”
That’s the risk we’re running right now. And he’s right that it will primarily work with selfish, deluded gay people. But selfish votes count just as much as votes from people who can see the big picture.