Yesterday, Freedom to Marry released an analysis of polling data written by Jan van Lohuizen and Joel Benenson, top campaign pollsters for Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, respectively, about the sea change in public opinion on the issue of marriage equality.
The results show a steady increase in popular support for same-sex couples’ freedom to marry between 1996 and 2008 followed by a dramatic surge over the past two years. Support for ending marriage discrimination grew among all groups analyzed, even older Americans and Republicans. Much of the recent spike is due to the fact that marriage equality now has “solid majority support” among the ever-important block of independent voters.
The final sentence of the report brought a smile to this 26-year-old happily married blogger’s face: “…support strongly correlates with age. As Americans currently under the age of 40 make up a greater percentage of the electorate, their views will come to dominate.” However, as Bush pollster van Lohuizen pointed out, “The remarkable surge over the last two years can’t be explained by generational change alone. It suggests that people across the political spectrum are rethinking their positions—and deciding in favor of the freedom to marry.”
The astonishingly rapid acceleration of popular support for marriage equality revealed in yesterday’s report further proves what many in the LGBT movement, including TWO’s Wayne Besen, have been saying for more than a year now: we have passed the cultural tipping point on LGBT rights. The upcoming battles will undoubtedly be severe, but with public opinion, demographics, and the arc of history now firmly on our side, we know that they are battles we will ultimately win.
Now if only reluctant politicians of all stripes would just hurry up and evolve already…
I still think Obama will not come out fully supporting marriage equality until after the presidential election, as it still could be used as a wedge issue. I think he might still be smarting from the last midterms, and would be still reluctant to get fully behind this issue, even thought he has done everything but this so far.
However, after he wins a 2nd term (of which I am nearly certain), my feeling is he will come out in favour, as he won’t have any elections left to lose.
Fortunately, support is occurring in all demographic groups and beyond the marriage issue. Pleasant stats from a recent USA article:
In 1978, the first time Gallup asked the question, one in four said they would be willing to vote for a homosexual for president. Four years ago, in 2007, 55% said they would.
Since then, there has been significant movement within every major demographic group.
By more than 2-1 (67%-32%), those surveyed last month said they would vote for a well-qualified gay candidate for president if he or she were nominated by their party.
In 2007, 39% of Republicans said they would support a gay presidential candidate; now 54% would.
Then, 40% of those who attend religious services every week said they would; that percentage has risen to 52%. Among conservatives, 38% had said they would support a gay candidate; that group now is split 49%-49%.
The biggest divide is by age, a generational shift that is likely to accelerate the pace of change over time. Among adults under 30, eight of 10 say they would vote for a qualified gay candidate, by far the highest percentage of any age group.
BUT HERE IS THE PLEASANT SURPRISE:
Even among their grandparents, though, changes in attitudes are apparent. In 2007, 38% of those 65 and older said they would vote for a gay presidential candidate. Now a 52% majority of seniors say they would.
There may be a problem. A Pew Research Center study found that “fully 69% say having a father in the home is essential to a child’s happiness. Only a slightly higher share (74%) says the same about having a mother in the home.” Since same-sex marriage excludes a father or a mother from the home, this does not bode well.
Jeremiah — maybe you do not understand how to read research. Or, maybe you are deliberately distorting it.
I don’t know your motive. But, I do know you are mixing apples and oranges. Such surveys deal only with heterosexual families and are comparing one parent hetero households with two parent hetero households.
This does not speak to gay households with children. Your inability to read polls does not bode well and makes you appear uneducated.
Jeremiah– you are still not answering my question.
What is your stake in all of this? Are you ex-gay? Do you work for NARTH, NOM, otr a similar organization, like the holy office?
You seem remarkably well informed for a mere dilletante, and remarkably ideological for a mere concerned citizen.
Inquiring minds want to know.
Jezza A,
ACTUALLY, research suggests that kids raised in lesbian families are better adjusted and more empathetic that their straight-raised contemporaries.
And, I was watching a documentary the other evening (a BBC documentary, so therefore fair and unbiased, an alien concept to a probable Fox watcher such as yourself). When kids are asked, they see the mother as nurturer and father as ‘the fun one’. Fathers also encourage language development in children, as they do not adjust their speech to the child’s level of understanding, as mothers are prone to do.
Anyhow, single mothers tend to remain the nurturer, whereas single fathers adopt BOTH roles, AND tend to establish routine, order and discipline around which fun can be based. Single father kids tend to be better adjusted and do better in school, so imagine if a kid has TWO fathers?
Taking this into account, perhaps it would be better if ALL adoptions were to gay families, if it is indeed the children’s welfare you are thinking of.
Peter, i fully agree with you; that has been my opinion about Obama even in the 2008 primaries.
Wayne, could you please post the USA article you mention in your initial comment (2)?
thank you. m
USA Today article
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-07-19-gay-candidates-politics_n.htm