(Election Analysis)
The gay rights battle in America has been a tough slog measured in inches and not yards — at least until last night when progress could be calculated in miles. In a blink, the future became the present and our horizons were without limitation. In a sweeping election victory, barriers were broken, glass ceilings shattered, dreams realized, and the upstream struggle for LGBT equality suddenly felt like a fantastic flume ride at the amusement park.
Against all odds, we won four referendums on marriage equality, where we had previously won a goose egg. Not only is the monkey finally off our backs — we spanked the critter, took him to the zoo, locked him in a cage, and force-fed him a banana peel for lunch.
Perhaps, we should have had a clue of the tsunami to come when our biggest advocate was a punter for the Minnesota Vikings named Chris Kluwe. Maybe we should have expected walls to crumble when Zach Wahls, the son of a lesbian couple from Iow
a, rushed to defend his two mothers. Or, that the floodgates would open when Bill Gates opened his wallet for same-sex marriage in Washington State, along with Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos. Or, when the world’s biggest pop star, Lady Gaga, seemed to be popping up everywhere to stump for marriage equality.
It was different this time because we weren’t alone and our straight allies stood with their LGBT friends and family members to do the backbreaking work required to get us over the hump.
Of course, the biggest victory was the reelection of Barack Obama, the first president to support marriage equality. When he came out in favor, there was trepidation that it might imperil his chances of retaking the White House. His win showed that backing same-sex marriage was not a risky strategy and had no adverse consequences at the national level. The result will be a full-fledged and permanent bear hug from the Democratic Party, with virtuall
y all reluctance to embracing marriage equality evaporating.
It is unlikely that a Democrat will ever again get the nomination without sharing the same public policy position as Barack Obama. Leading Democratic contenders for the 2016 presidential race, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, already appear to be competing for the title of “most gay-friendly candidate.”
Of paramount significance, the Supreme Court is protected for another four years – saving Roe. V. Wade and giving hope to marriage equality advocates if a case finally comes before the nine justices. Had Romney been elected, he would have sat down with extremist Robert Bork to pick a younger version of Antonin Scalia to sit on the bench. Those who care about LGBT equality and abortion rights dodged a bullet by the president being reelected.
When the votes were counted, the Republican Party surely had to get the message that standing in the way of history was no longer a viable national strategy. The tide has turned and the GOP can either swim with the current or get washed out to sea on a wave of wishful thinking. We already saw gay issues downplayed by the Romney campaign, but now it may be out of play if the Republican Party wants to woo the next generation. Surely, the writing is on the wall when 70% of the 18-30 demographic supports marriage equality.
Additionally, GOP officials had to be incensed that Tea Party radicals, such as Todd “legitimate rape” Akin (MO) and Richard “Rape is God’s Will” Mourdock (IN) helped keep the United States Senate in Democratic hands. Tea Party stalwart Michele Bachmann barely squeaked out a victory in Minnesota and it appears that Allen “I smell commies” West may have fallen in Florida. When the next session of Congress begins, these results substantially weaken the hand of religious radicals who routinely vote against access to abortion and gay rights.
Of course, the biggest surprise of the night were the four victories in referendums over marriage – considering that prior to Tuesday the LGBT movement was 0-31 in votes on this issue. This gave opponents, such as Maggie Gallagher and Brian Brown of the National Organization for Marriage (NOM), the ability to say that they represented the will of the people. This potent talking point crumbled in the face of victories in Maine, Washington State, Maryland, and Minnesota.
In Washington and Maryland, voters were deciding on whether to uphold marriage laws passed by their legislatures and signed by these states’ respective governors, Christine Gregoire and Martin O’Malley.
In Maine, gay rights advocates went on offense for a change, and placed a referendum on the ballot to have voters decide on the question of marriage equality. The huge victories in these three states made gay marriage a reality in the District of Columbia and nine other states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Washington, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York.
With the exception of Rhode Island, the important cultural, educational, media, and economic hub of New England is now a marriage equality zone. When the legal wrangling in California ends, the entire West Coast, except for Oregon, will allow marriage equality. Illinois, which currently allows civil unions, has a fair chance of becoming the next Midwestern state to allow marriage for same-sex couples.
Prior to the election, I privately expected wins in Washington and Maine and narrow losses in Minnesota and Maryland. To win all four fights is not just a tipping point, but a historical turning point, if not an outright landslide for the ages. Americans are quickly losing their fear of marriage equality and states that don’t get on board will soon be viewed as backwaters that are more interested in prejudice than prosperity. Corporations will increasingly eschew enclaves where they can’t attract the best and the brightest, in favor of more progressive areas that embrace education and diversity. The forces of the past can either get on-board or be thrown overboard.
The repudiation of anti-gay prejudice in Maryland was particularly scrumptious, because it slapped down NOM’s divisive strategy of driving a wedge between African Americans and gays, as well as pandering to conservative Catholics. At the Values Voter Summit, Derek McCoy, Executive Director for the Maryland Marriage Alliance, summed up the devastation to the anti-gay movement that would come with a loss in his state.
“If we lose in Maryland specifically the headlines will read the next day, ‘Obama Wins On Gay Marriage’ and “Catholic governor of Maryland Switches the Catholic Vote.’”
Well, it seems that McCoy is better at predictions than running campaigns. NOM’s ugly divide and conquer strategy fell flat. To stanch the bleeding, McCoy will join the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins on a media conference call today – or a better description might be a “Conference Cry.”
In my view, the biggest surprise came in the Minnesota victory. At the recent Values Voter Summit, John Helmberger, CEO of the Minnesota Family Council, almost seemed giddy with confidence that his side would win. He claimed at the time that his campaign was leading in every demographic. And he said, there was no ethnic or religious group his campaign was not targeting: “We’ve been in the state’s largest mosques and they are solidly behind the marriage amendment…but getting out the vote is everything for us.”
NOM’s Brian Brown expressed his disenchantment with the election results in a public statement today:
“Though we are disappointed over these losses, we remain faithful to our mission and committed to the cause of preserving marriage as God designed it. Marriage is a true and just cause, and we will never abandon the field of battle just because we experienced a setback. There is much work to do, and we begin that process now.”
I’m no theologian, but if God was on Brown’s side, He certainly did nothing to help him get out the vote. Or, maybe God listened to Brown’s incoherent arguments or was disgusted by campaign strategist Frank Schubert’s dishonest anti-gay ads and changed His mind on the issue?
There was even good news from Iowa. Prior to the election, NOM went on a highly touted bus tour to defeat Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins and unseat state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D). Here is what NOM’s Brown had to say prior to the election to BuzzFeed’s Chris Geidner:
“We’re going into Iowa. Why are we spending all these resources in Iowa? We’ve never hidden it. We want to defeat the judges, and we want to have a constitutional amendment. And, guess what? Mike Gronstal is about to lose. He’s not going to be Senate leader. And we’re going to get a vote in Iowa. And the whole notion that we’re somehow in a containment mode will be done. We’re going into Iowa, we’re gonna get a vote, and we’re gonna win the vote. And, people can say that this isn’t gonna happen, but it is.”
Both Wiggans and Gronstal won. When the biggest opponent of marriage equality can no longer achieve victory in the cornfields of Iowa, it is in deep trouble. Brown should consider polishing his resume and looking for a new career.
You know it’s a huge night when I don’t get around to mentioning the election of the first openly gay United States Senator, Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), until the umpteenth paragraph. Still, her win over Tommy Thompson was one for the history books and her progressive voice will be instrumental in the Senate. If this weren’t enough, a record number of gay candidates were elected to the House of Representatives. Seven states elected their first openly gay lawmakers: Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, New Mexico, Texas, and Pennsylvania.
In other news:
• Democrat Margaret Hassan clinched the governorship in New Hampshire, ensuring that marriage equality will be protected. I guess voters decided to Live Free.
• Hawaii’s anti-gay former governor, Linda Lingle (R), was defeated in her U.S. Senate race by Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono. Hirono becomes Hawaii’s first woman senator as well as a supporter of LGBT equality.
• In Orlando, former Equality Florida staffer, Joe Saunders, won a victory over republican Marco Pena with a 55% to 44% percent margin.
Most of us went into Election Day hoping for a cloud with silver lining. Instead, we got a silver cloud with gold lining, and one of the most significant days in the history of the LGBT movement.
UPDATE: Official marriage vote numbers
MARYLAND: We won 51.9% to 48.1% [98% counted]. Marriage is legal.
MAINE: We won 52.7% to 47.3% [96% counted]. Marriage is legal.
MINNESOTA: We won 52.34% to 47.66% [99% counted]. There will be no constitutional ban.
WASHINGTON: We lead 52% to 48% and are projected to win. Marriage will be legal.
Oh Wayne, victory sure is sweet! Equality won and the Wacko Christian Right got it’s butt kicked. Lies and fear had no place in this election and NOM was full of it. I noticed that the clouds are still in the sky this morning and fire and brimstone are not raining down upon the LBGT supporting cities and states of the Nation. The Hell and Damnation that preachers, Mormons, and Catholic Bishop/Cardinals spread did nothing to influence their flocks. Life is going on and liberty is but one step closer. The President who came out in favor or LBGT rights and the Democratic Party who made Gay Marriage a plank in the Party Platform were not defeated by the Religious Nut cases of the Nation. In fact, those who made outlandish comments about women where soundly defeated for the most part as only Michelle Bachman it appears has survived defeat….but just barely. Just remember Tea Party Wacko’s….there is another election in just two years….we’re coming to get the rest of you run out of office by fair minded representatives.
The more we win, the easier it is, as people do realize the sky isn’t falling and our crazy foes become less credible.
Things are looking up today. :)
America, well done on your equality achievements. So proud from over in Australia. Michael.
I stayed up until 5am watching this amazing victory progress. Full marks to Truth Wins Out for your role in making freedom a possibility.
Following this vote, we will see the further demonizing LGBT people by the anti-gay movement— Excellent!
Let’s hope they keep the anti-gay stupidity rolling!
It makes it easy for decent Americans to support its LGBT communities—just look at these votes! Good job America.
Now we have to be even more relentless. We can’t rest on our laurels. We need to force NOM’s hand and make them disclose more information that can be used against them. Robert George is coming out with a new book. We need to be ready for that. A great benefit from Tuesday’s success is that major companies will likely be more enthusiastic supporters of LGBT causes. Their support was crucial in Washington and Minnesota. There’s still a lot of fight left, but I hope you all remember what’s best in life
Crush your enemies.
See them driven before you.
And hear the lamentations of the women.
Wayne, you, too, have played an enormous roll in this campaign, beginning with your book, “Anything but Straight,” and relentlessly exposing the anti-gay nut heads ever since. I’m especially elated about the MN amendment defeat, thanks in large part to our friend, Chris Kluwe.
As a straight woman, I was thrilled that a Presidential candidate finally declared his support for marriage equality. I would have voted for Obama anyway, but that was icing on the cake.
I grew up immersed in the insanity that was Colorado Springs in the 90s (even worse then than now!) and was taught that homosexuals were evil people with an agenda to destroy the American family, etc., etc., ad nauseum. The first time I had a conversation with an openly gay man, he demolished all of those negative stereotypes without even trying; he was so clearly the opposite of everything I’d been taught that I came away convinced that my church leaders had lied viciously, either out of malice or an inexcusable level of ignorance. I still hold that view. I guess my point is to say, Keep up the good fight! One conversation, one encounter can change someone’s perspective. And the LGBT community can always count on my vote.
Here in the UK we breathed a collective sigh of relief that President Obama was back. It is a huge step forward for LGBT confidence and self esteem and I genuinely hope and believe that equality and decency will prevail.
I have always felt that the religious right in America (and indeed here) were hate filled whilst preaching ‘love’ and had to be fought. However, the ordinary, everyday person over here seems not to care too much either way and if gay people want marriage equality then it’s a shrug of the shoulders and an ‘OK then’ attitude. Sure the various churches are against it, notably the Catholics, but we are pretty much a secular society and, in my view, much better for it.
That’s not to say that things are perfect for gay people here but on the whole we have a much easier time than our American cousins.
In terms of the world stage, President Obama and his wife are much respected here and in Europe as a whole. Mitt Romney did make a pre-election visit and somehow managed to offend the leaders of everywhere he went. Indeed we likened him to George Bush Jr as he came across as a dangerous, trigger happy hothead. There were some amusing incidents – such as when he introduced his running mate as ‘the next president of the United States’ but he held some worrying views on the Middle East,China and Russia.
I would like to offer everyone in the US hearty congratulations on the election result and my admiration to Wayne and his colleagues for their outstanding work and achievements for the LGBT community.
David – London.